As we close in on Election Day, new polls show former President Donald Trump holding a slight lead.A quarter of the total votes in the 2020 cycle have already been cast, with 40 million ballots cast nationwide. Republicans are exceeding expectations, as you have likely heard, with a remarkably high percentage of registered Republicans returning mail-in ballots or voting early. To determine whether Democrats should be concerned at this point, let's examine the data and create a 2024 electoral college map using these figures. In the majority of states, NBC News offers a fantastic tool for tracking mail in an early voting. 

At the time of recording, registered Democrats accounted for 42% of these ballots, registered Republicans for 40%, and independents or third-party voters for 18%. Early on, Democrats have a slight advantage, which is not surprising. In the past, they have favored early in-person and mail-in voting, whereas Republicans typically turn out in greater numbers on election day. The true surprise, however, is how small the gap is.

To gain a better understanding of how things might turn out, we will examine polling data, demographic trends, and prediction markets in greater detail rather than taking these figures at face value. Let's get started. Because the states haven't released their results, NBC News does not have early voting data for the four states that are already indicated as solid Republicans on this map: Missouri, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Alabama. But in 2020, each of these states supported Donald Trump by at least 15 points, and there's no reason to think they won't support him again by a significant margin when the votes are counted.

I'll forego a thorough examination of each safe state for each candidate for former President Trump in order to keep the conversation going. As predicted, Republicans should win the majority of votes in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Alaska, according to early vote data. North Dakota, South Dakota, the entire state of Nebraska, the first and third districts of Kansas, and Oklahoma are all located throughout the Great Plains. West Virginia and Indiana complete the list in Appalachia, while South Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas are all displaying their customarily high levels of Republican support. These states haven't voted Democratic since at least 2008 and each overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2020.

According to early voting data, Republicans are already soaring to significant leads in each of these states, with margins ranging from 15 to 40 points. They have 125 electoral votes between them. Recall that the magic number required to secure the White House at this time is 270. Regarding Kamala Harris, Democrats are leading in a number of deep blue states. California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington are located along the Pacific coast. 

The remaining Democratic strongholds are located in the Northeast, including New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., with Illinois being the only state that is firmly blue and not coastal. None of these states have voted Republican since 1988, eight cycles ago, and Joe Biden won all of them by at least 15 points in 2020. Once more, Democrats are predicted to lead by extremely large margins in this early vote.

Together, they give Kamala Harris 180 electoral votes, putting her ahead of Trump. We'll now examine the remaining 17 competitive states in more detail. Let's start with Nevada, which has drawn more attention than any other state this cycle due to its early vote totals. We would normally be talking about the Democratic firewall at this point and whether Republicans could bridge the divide on election day.

Republicans are currently ahead of Democrats by 6 percentage points, however, with nearly 600,000 ballots already cast, or nearly half of the total anticipated vote. Perhaps the most alarming early data point for Kamala Harris' campaign this cycle is this one. In 2020, Biden was able to keep Nevada in the Democratic column by 2.4% after the final early vote total of 1.3 million votes in Nevada favored Democrats by 4 points. In contrast to national trends, Nevada has gradually shifted to Republican.

Despite a smaller national popular vote margin, Clinton won Nevada by the same 2.4% margin in 2016. Republicans took advantage of this trend in 2022 by flipping the governor's office. According to the Decision Desk HQ polling average, which is based on 43 surveys, Trump is currently 0.9% ahead of Harris. Democrats just need to begin eroding the Republican early vote advantage this week in a contest this close. 

Alternatively, Trump might outperform not just in Nevada but possibly in other battlegrounds as well. As of right now, I'm leaning Republican in Nevada, and Trump is the slight favorite going into Arizona, another fiercely contested race in the Southwest. Arizona was only 0.3% away from Biden in 2020, making it the second-closest state by margin. The quick development and diversification of Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix Meg metro area, is responsible for his victory. The county and the state as a whole were just barely swung to the Democratic side by the high turnout of Hispanic and college-educated voters.

With 1.2 million mail-in and early in-person votes cast, Republicans are now on track for a strong showing here, leading Democrats by 6 points, currently 42% Republican to 36% Democrat. Republicans outperformed that figure by 3 points when compared to the 2020 election, in which they led Democrats by just 3 points, 38% to 35%, out of the 2.8 million early ballots returned. This change is important because any Democratic lapse in Arizona could be disastrous for the party, especially considering Biden's narrow 0.3% victory margin in 2020. This trend is also supported by polling data, which shows that Trump is currently 1.9% ahead of Harris according to 59 polls. Interestingly, since Biden left the race, Arizona has been the only key battleground state where Trump has continuously polled at or above Harris. 

Arizona will therefore join Nevada in the tilt Republican category. Trump is expected to win both states unless there is a significant increase in Democratic early vote turnout. Colorado and New Mexico are next. In 2020, Colorado voted to the left of New Mexico for the first time in more than 50 years, favoring Joe Biden by nearly 14 points while New Mexico only supported him by 11%.However, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 12 points in New Mexico and by a smaller margin of two points in Colorado, according to the early vote here. I should point out that Colorado's independence has historically been strongly left-leaning, which explains the majority of votes cast so far. With 40% of those ballots returned by independents, the early vote in 2020 indicated that Democrats likewise only had a 2 point lead over Republicans. Biden won by 13.5% once more. 

Since Democrats are on pace to match their 2020 margins, I will now return to our electoral map and put both states in the safe blue column. Texas, the second-largest electoral prize on the map with 40 votes, completes the Southwest. Texas has received more ballots than any other state, with over 4 million already cast in the first few days of early voting. Trump won Texas by 5.6%, the smallest Republican margin in Texas this century, and Republicans now lead Democrats by 18 points in the early vote, 54% to 36%.With more than 9.5 million ballots cast, the early and absentee vote had a 17-point Republican slant. Republicans are up about a point in early 2024, so the numbers we're seeing here seem to match up fairly well with those from four years ago. Similarly, Trump leads Harris by 6.6% in the poll average, which is based on 18 polls and represents a 1 point improvement over the 2020 margin. 

Additionally, it's becoming more likely that Democrats reached their ceiling in Texas in 2020 and might find it difficult to surpass that performance this cycle given the continued Republican trend among Hispanic voters. We will therefore classify Texas as likely Republican based on these considerations. Okay. Moving on to the southeast, we are in Florida, another state where nearly 4 million ballots have been returned in the first few days of early voting. Here, too, Republicans are ahead by nine points, with 44% of the votes cast so far, compared to 35% for Democrats.

Another worrying statistic for Kamala Harris is that in 2020, when Trump won Florida by three and a half points, Democrats were ahead by one point in the final early vote total of over 9 million. Over the past few years, the Florida Democratic Party has just had a terrible time here. Over the past few cycles, the state has shifted as sharply to the right as any other state, and Republicans have registered a significantly higher number of voters since 2020. 

Recall that Republicans experienced a localized red wave in 2022 when Marco Rubio and Governor Ron DeSantis were reelected by a combined margin of more than 15 percentage points in Florida. Additionally, according to the poll, Trump may win Florida in 2024 by the biggest margin for a presidential candidate in decades. Florida returns to our map, joining Texas as a likely Republican. Next up is Georgia, the closest state in 2020, where Joe Biden won by a minuscule 0.2% margin, turning the Peach State blue for the first time in 30 years. Like Arizona, Biden's win was due to the quick development and diversification of Atlanta, the state's largest city, where record black voter turnout swung the state just a sliver in Biden's favor.

The possibility of drastic racial depolarization as Black and Hispanic voters lean toward Trump polling is one of the election cycle's stories. Trump is up more than 20 points on average among black voters compared to 20 according to cross tabs from October 16 to October 31. This change could be especially harmful to Democratic prospects in Georgia. 

The most recent polling average, which is based on 55 polls and the Decision Desk HQ average, shows that Trump is marginally ahead of Harris by 1.3%, which is also consistent with the overall numbers. Early voting has surpassed half of the 2020 total turnout, and Georgia is once again witnessing a record number of ballots cast early. Republicans are leading by 4 points, 49% to 45%, with about 2.8 million ballots cast early or by mail thus far. It's interesting to note that this is a generally good sign for Democrats. In early voting of 4 million ballots in 2020, Republicans were 8 points ahead of Democrats. However, the overrepresentation of mail-in ballots, which are typically cast first and have a much more Democratic slant, likely means that Democratic numbers are still inflated.

At this stage, the Harris campaign will take advantage of any positive signs that are available. As we continue to track these numbers over the course of the next week, we will continue to place Georgia in the tilt Republican category on our map for the time being. North Carolina, another crucial battleground with 16 electoral votes, is currently making its way up the southeast coast. Given that rural Republican-dominated areas are predicted to vote heavily for Trump on election day, Democrats must establish a strong early voting lead in this area. 

However, out of the 2.5 million ballots cast so far, Democrats are once again performing poorly, trailing Republicans by 2 points. Court decisions regarding RFK junior status on the ballot and, of course, the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which temporarily closed some early voting locations, have complicated North Carolina's early voting process. Nevertheless, the 2 1/2 million vote sample size provides insightful information. Among about 4.5 million ballots, Democrats in 2020 established a 5 point lead over Republicans before Election Day.

However, Trump won the state by more than a point in the end, so once more, Democrats are falling short of their 2020 performance in a state where they depend on high voter turnout to stay competitive. According to our map, North Carolina will join other Sunbelt states in the tilt Republican category, with Trump currently leading Harris by 1.5% in an average of 59 polls. There are nine states left in the race, and former President Trump has 244 more electoral votes than Kamala Harris, who has 195. 

Tim Walz, Harris' running mate, will be our first focus as we move to the Midwest. In 2020, Joe Biden won his home state of Minnesota by a 7-point margin, with Democrats holding a 13% lead in the early vote. Democrats are ahead of Republicans by 22 points after almost a million ballots were returned today. Over the past few days, as early in-person ballots have replaced the initial waves of mail-in votes, this lead has somewhat shrunk. We'll put Minnesota squarely in the likely category for Walls and Harris on our electoral map.

Let's move on to Ohio and Iowa. These two states have some of the nation's quickest right-wing trends. Before Donald Trump won them by at least 8 points in 2016 and 2020, they both supported Barack Obama in 2008 and again in 2012. With 300,000 ballots returned, Democrats currently lead Republicans in Iowa by 4 points. Compared to 2020, when they led early voting by 12 points before election day moved the state to an 8-point victory for Trump, this is yet another notable underperformance by Democrats. 

Republicans are actually doing a little worse in Ohio. Republicans had a 10-point early vote lead among the 3.3 million early ballots cast in 2020, but they are now one point behind Democrats in the 2.3 million ballots that have been returned thus far. There is some indication that Democratic losses in Ohio and throughout Appalachia may be slowing, but Republicans still have time to increase this margin.In the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats made slight gains in suburban areas. According to an average of 14 polls, Trump is ahead of Harris in Ohio by roughly 6 points. Notably, Trump has underperformed by 8 points in 2020 in each of the last seven polls. Thus, Ohio stays in the likely Republican category for the time being, while Iowa will move into the safe Republican column on our map. 

Let's now concentrate on the WIMPA states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—the three main upper Rust Belt states that will once more be crucial in this contest. Together, these states have supported Democrats in every election since 1988 until they shifted to Trump by less than a point in 2016, giving him the votes he needed to reach 270. But in 2020, they all turned back to Biden, ensuring his ascent to the presidency. Again, winning at least one of these states is likely to be the deciding factor in both candidates' paths to 270 in the 2024 election.

Kamala Harris may require all three. With a clean sweep of the Rust Belt states beginning in Wisconsin, Harris could still garner 270 electoral votes, even if Trump were to sweep the four Sun Belt battlegrounds as he does here. Of the three Upper Midwest states, it is typically regarded as the most Republican. Fundamentally and demographically, Wisconsin has voted more conservatively than Michigan and Pennsylvania in recent cycles, and because of its more rural and white population, it is particularly vulnerable to Trump's support from white working class voters. Trump significantly beat the final polling averages here by more than six and a half points in both 2016 and 2020.

He was about six points behind Clinton in 2016, and Biden was more than eight points ahead in 2020. However, according to 67 surveys, Trump now leads Harris by a mere 0.4% in the 2024 polling average. Democrats had an advantage in early voting due to the initial mail-in ballots, but as early in-person voting has continued, the gap has shrunk.

Democrats now lead Republicans by 12 points, a difference that is getting smaller every day, after more than 800,000 ballots were counted. In contrast, Republicans received almost 2 million votes before Election Day in 2020, 8 points more than Democrats. All that remains is to wait and see if Republicans can surpass Democrats in early voting, and if so, by what margin. According to the current Poly Market betting markets, Trump has a 57% chance of winning Wisconsin, and I generally concur with the general public.

For those who have been paying attention, even when Harris led earlier in the cycle, I have always been doubtful of her chances here. Therefore, I'm currently classifying Wisconsin as a tilt Republican on our map. In Michigan, where I've been more hopeful for Harris than the average person, it's a different story. Having supported Biden by almost 3 points in 2020, Michigan is essentially the bluest of the three WIMPA states, and Democrats have since done well in down-ballot contests.

Based on their 64 poll average, the two candidates are in a dead tie according to the most recent polling average from Decision Desk HQ, with the lead fluctuating over the past few weeks. Nearly a million votes have already been returned in the early vote, giving Democrats a 14-point lead (52% to 38%). Once more, this democratic advantage is getting smaller every day. In 2020, when Biden won Michigan by 2.8%, Republicans received 3.2 million early or mail-in votes, two points more than Democrats.

In light of that, I will now mark Michigan as a Democrat-leaning state for Harris. In my opinion, if these three states do split, Pennsylvania will vote in the middle, while Wisconsin and Michigan are most likely to deviate. Speaking of Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, it is the most crucial battleground on the map. According to Nate Silver's most recent presidential prediction, Pennsylvania has a 31% chance of deciding the outcome, and if Harris and Trump win Pennsylvania, their chances of receiving 270 electoral votes soar to almost 90%.

Based on 88 polls, Trump is currently ahead of all other states by 0.2%, according to the polling average. Since Harris became the Democratic nominee, the margin has remained within the range of a normal polling error. To put it simply, Pennsylvania is a 50/50 battleground when it comes to early voting, and it's as purple as it gets. Already, 1.2 million ballots have been sent back. Traditional early voting is not available in Pennsylvania. 

A mail-in ballot must be requested in person at the county clerk's office. Given that 60% of the ballots are from registered Democrats and only 30% are from Republicans, it is anticipated that these ballots will be overwhelmingly Democratic. In comparison to other states, these preliminary results will provide us with fewer hints in this case; however, it is still worthwhile to examine the 2020 data, which shows a similarly sizable Democratic lead of 31 points in this state, 65% to 24%, among the 2.5 million votes cast prior to Election Day.

The numbers are therefore following a similar pattern to when Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2% four years ago, at least for the time being. I understand that some of you may be complaining in the comments section, but on my map, I'm putting Pennsylvania squarely in the toss-up category. Unless, of course, you're watching the race through your own red-tinted or blue-tinted glasses, there isn't a clear favorite at this point. 

The more Democratic secondary battlegrounds that remain are Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nebraska's second congressional district. Virginia is worth 13 electoral votes. Approximately a half million ballots have been returned so far, and Democrats now lead by 12 points, 51% to 39%. With early voting accounting for over half of all 2020 votes and leaning Democratic by 8 points, Virginia voted for Biden by 10 points, the biggest Democratic margin since FDR in 1944. Even after taking into consideration the early inflation of mail-in ballots, Democrats are doing well in this area. For Harris, I'll put Virginia in the likely Blue column.

New Hampshire and Maine are the next stops in New England. In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Trump by less than three points, deciding both states by slim margins. However, they swung hard in 2020, losing to Biden by 9 points in Maine and 7 points in New Hampshire. As of right now, the minimal early vote here favors Democrats by 18 points in Maine and 6 points in New Hampshire. For Harris, I'll put both states in the Likely Blue column. 

Nebraska and Maine divided their electoral votes, giving one to each congressional district and two to the statewide victor. Although early vote data at this level is not available, Maine's first district consistently leans blue, and in the previous two cycles, the second district voted for Trump by sizable margins. Given that it is among the most rural, whitest, and oldest districts in the nation, there is a good chance that it will continue its recent trend toward the right.

Regarding Nebraska's second district, which is largely urban and encircles Omaha, it has a much more racially diverse population and a high percentage of college graduates. It is probably going to move even more to the left this cycle after voting six and a half points for Biden. Here, Harris probably goes blue. With 278 electoral votes to Kamala Harris's 241 and 19 votes in Pennsylvania falling into the toss-up category, Donald Trump is therefore expected to win the election, according to an analysis of the early vote thus far. We are still headed for an extremely close final out result. As Election Day approaches, be sure to subscribe to my channel below for more updates. However, that concludes today's video. Please see the description below for a shout-out to my channel members.

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